India loses home series to New Zealand, jeopardizing WTC 2023-25 final qualification. Can they recover in the upcoming Tests? Key analysis and future outlook.
Indian cricket team suffered the second consecutive defeat at the hands of New Zealand in the IND vs NZ Test series. The 113-run loss in Pune, following a seven-wicket defeat in Bengaluru, ended India's impressive 18-series winning streak at home. New Zealand registered its maiden Test series success on Indian soil, while India suffered its first home series loss since 2012.
India's recent 4-1 and 2-0 wins against England and Bangladesh, respectively, had set many expecting an all-conquering clean sweep over the Kiwis in this series. The back-to-back losses now are affecting the Indian team as much as the fans who feel that these two successive defeats have come just before the demanding five-Test tour of Australia.
Effect on ICC World Test Championship Final Qualification
These losses have significant implications on India's prospects in the WTC 2023-25 cycle, whose final is scheduled to be played at Lord's in June next year. There are only six more Tests left in the WTC cycle, and the Indian team is now under immense pressure to win to keep their hopes of a WTC final.
India's PCT drop and points table impact.
Despite India remaining at the top of the ICC WTC points table, PCT has fallen from 74% to 62.82%, bringing them closer to contention with Australia (62.50%) and Sri Lanka (55.56%). Before this series, India, Australia, and Sri Lanka were more or less the three horses vying for a berth in the WTC final. However, it has been India's shocking defeat and South Africa's defeat of Bangladesh recently which ensured both New Zealand (PCT 50.00%) and South Africa (PCT 47.62%) a better chance into the finals race.
The way forward for India: WTC Final Qualification
With six Tests left, one against New Zealand and five crucial ones against Australia, the road ahead for India has turned pretty challenging to qualify for the WTC final. Here is what India needs to qualify:
Win four tests and draw one: In all probability, for India to maintain a safe PCT of 65.79%, it will have to win four and draw one out of the remaining six matches.
Dependence on Other Teams' Performances: If India cannot do this, then they will have to depend on the performance of other matches. For instance, Sri Lanka's match at home against Australia and away against South Africa could well change the course of things in the WTC points table.
Concerns and Strategies going into the Australia Series
India's shock losses to New Zealand have exposed some soft spots, especially ahead of the more daunting Australian batting line-up in the next series. Here are a few takeaways for India:
Strengthening the Batting Order: India's batting against New Zealand was patchy and most of the batting order failed to get their act together. Stabilizing the middle order will be crucial to prevent collapses when Australia's strong bowling line-up comes knocking.
Re-shaping the Bowling Attack: Neutralization of India's bowling by New Zealand will require a change of tactics and more strategic bowling options. Home advantage would need to be exploited for their bowlers.
Recovery in Team Morale and Strategy: After two big defeats, the morale of the team will surely have suffered. Getting back and resetting the strategy under a powerful leadership might become a significant need for this team at this recovery stage.
Final Words: Can India Steer a Change?
India still has a chance at making it to the WTC final, but with razor-thin margins for error. Winning the third Test against New Zealand and gaining consistent wins in the Australian series will be crucial. Also, favorable results from other teams' series can prove to be a helping hand in India's qualification quest.
